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    Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact?

    Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact? | MyKCM

    Economists and analysts know that the country has experienced economic growth for almost a decade. They also know that a recession can’t be too far off. A recent reportby Zillow Research shed light on a survey conducted by Pulsenomics in which they asked economists, investment strategists and market analysts how they felt about the current housing market. That report revealed the possible timing of the next recession:

    Experts largely expect the next recession to begin in 2020.”

    That timing concurs with a recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal:

    “The economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and already ranks as the second-longest in American history most likely will end in 2020 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool off an overheating economy, according to forecasters surveyed.”

    Here is a graph comparing the opinions of those surveyed by both the Wall Street Journal and Pulsenomics:

    Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact? | MyKCM

    Recession DOES NOT Equal Housing Crisis

    According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, a recession is defined as follows:

    “A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

    A recession means the economy has slowed down markedly. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. Obviously, the housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, during the previous five recessions home values appreciated.

    Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact? | MyKCM

    According to the experts surveyed by Pulsenomics, the top three probable triggers for the next recession are:

    • Monetary policy
    • Trade policy
    • A stock market correction

    A housing market correction was ranked ninth in probability. Those same experts also projected that home values would continue to appreciate in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.  

    Others agree that housing will not be impacted like it was a decade ago.

    Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economistexplained:

    “If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.”

    And U.S. News and World Report agreed:

    “Fortunately – and hopefully – the history of recessions and current issues that could harm the economy don’t lead many to believe the housing market crash will repeat itself in an upcoming decline.”

    Bottom Line

    A recession is probably less than two years away. A housing crisis is not.

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    Carin Nguyen

    Carin Nguyen takes the business of real estate very seriously and she has the track record to prove it. She holds the recent prestigious title and ranking of the #1 realtor in AZ for sides as awarded by the Wall Street Journal. Carin is an Arizona native and fully understands the complexities and changing landscape of the Arizona market. She has been in the real estate industry for over 10 year’s full time and comes by her expertise honestly, having honed it during years in the finance and mortgage industries. Education and knowledge is key in getting her buyers and sellers what they what. A rich resume built with a tireless commitment to her clients, undeniable proven past success and an uncompromised vision for the future create the recipe for complete customer satisfaction. Carin understands the potential emotional stress and sometimes life altering experiences felt by clients during the real estate transaction process. Carin is unyielding in insisting on complete professionalism from herself and her team while understanding that real estate is a personal business. She thrives on managing the details and individuality of each transaction and client. Her clients know that having Carin on their side means they have an advocate who cares about them and their needs. Carin is convinced that building relationships will ensure continued satisfaction and be reflected in future success. There is no denying what provides Carin with her constant strength. Her family is “at the heart of my motivation to push myself to achieve my goals and to be forthright in all that I do. My husband, Son, is my biggest source of support, my coach and my best friend. I am truly blessed with a loving husband and four great children who collectively strengthen my resolve to be the best at all my endeavors. I can be a wife and mother and still be a successful Realtor because I tackle everything with all that I have. My motto is ‘Working Hard To Get Homes Sold’ for a reason. I am thrilled that so many families have made me their real estate consultant.” A commitment to professionalism, an empathetic and understanding approach to her clients and an unstoppable and dependable force from her family all ensures success for Carin and most importantly, her clients

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